Sunday 9 October 2016

2. Electoral map of the 1928 general election

Electoral map of the 1928 general election


[1]

This map of the U.S. shows the way in which each state's 'electors', collectively known as the electoral college voted for the President in the 1928 general election, the winner of which was Republican candidate Herbert C. Hoover who defeated the Democratic candidate Alfred E. Smith by a large majority of 444 electoral votes to 87 electoral votes. It is important, at this stage, to take note of the fact that Americans do not directly elect their own President but instead elect State representatives or 'electors' who have pledged to vote for a particular candidate beforehand. This idea, although seemingly bizarre, is derived from a series of compromises made by a committee that bridged divides between those in favour of the 'Virginia Plan', supporting congressional presidential election and those in favour of presidential election based on popular vote during the Constitutional Convention of 1787 in Philadelphia where the constitution was written and signed.

Overall, it appears that any observations we might make from this map are likely to be limited and simplistic in nature due in no small part to the overwhelming clarity of the result. Indeed, perhaps one of the only notable features to be found in this map is the group of neighbouring states in the 'Deep South' that voted Democrat for Smith (the New England states of Massachusetts and Rhode Island being the only others to vote Democrat). This stark blue block acts as a political (and geographical) testimony to the impact of the American civil war which despite having ended around 80 years before this election, had an unprecedented effect on the American political sphere, the consequences of which are evident in this map and can even be traced forward to the present day. The civil war was fought largely over the issue of slavery where the Southern 'Slave' states formed a confederacy to protect their ownership rights against a more liberal Northern Union led by the Republican President Abraham Lincoln. Even 80 years after a Unionist victory, many Southern states that once formed the Confederacy still held white supremacist views at the core of their legislature; and so consequently voted consistently for Presidential candidates from the Democratic party, as it was white democrat politicians who typically passed 'Jim Crow' laws, enforcing segregation at this time. Particularly interesting is the way in which this group of Democrat-voting southern states known as the 'Solid South' is now generally reversed, with these states now voting almost exclusively Republican in elections since around 1980, reflecting changes in party stance and policy (although the conservative attitudes of these states has not wavered).

However, analysis of these Southern states aside, the result can clearly be generalised as a lopsided win for Hoover and the Republican Party in an election that was centred on issues surrounding prohibition and the maintenance of an economic boom initiated during the early 1920's as a result of the economic successes of World War I and its aftermath for America. The economic boom of the 1920's was largely attributed to the Republican Party, led by President Coolidge through most of the decade, thus explaining the public vote for their continued leadership when Hoover pledged to continue this period of growth and opulence. In combination with this, the prospects of the 1928 Democratic candidate Smith were severely harmed by his association with the Tammany Hall corruption scandals and his anti-prohibition stance (there was significant support for prohibition in many American communities at this time, particularly those with a strong religious identity). The sum of these factors is clearly represented in the result of this general election where it seems that Americans voted with clear hopes for continued prosperity, though this was evidently but a temptation of fate, given the catastrophic collapse of Wall Street and its ensuing depression only one year on from this election.

Finally, as a footnote of sorts, this electoral map of 1928 also shows patterns of migration and change in state population when compared with electoral maps of recent years. This is because the number of electors allocated to each state is identical to the number of representatives they are afforded in Congress, as is determined by census-defined state populations in a political system known as 'proportional representation' also written into the U.S. Constitution in 1787. For example, in 1928, we see that the most populous state by some margin is New York with 45 electors while states such as Florida and California hold only 6 and 13 electors, respectively, compared with 29 and 55 electors in 2016, with New York's elector count being reduced to 29. This enables us to map out the changing state populations in America which in this case, suggest a mass migration to, or population soar within California and Florida as well as an indication to the way in which they vote. These trends are invariably linked to a near-limitless list of other confounding factors, the likes of which are often political, but may also be linked to issues with culture, media, urbanisation, tourism and immigration.

Note: The value of any analysis of this map is significantly expanded through comparison with the electoral map for the 1932 general election where the effects of the Wall Street crash are made abundantly clear, with near apocalyptic consequences for the Republican Party, as is evidenced in subsequent elections.

Sources

[1] - http://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/












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